Extinction Coefficient
Evan Hubinger, an Anthropic alignment researcher (a glorified sociologist), estimates a greater than 10% probability of human extinction from AI within the next decade.
Apparently he pulled that number out of his arse instead of just asking Claude to pull it out of its arse.
Recently I asked Claude and GPT the probability of the commercial success of quantum computing. They both suggested greater than 95%.
I did my own modelling and got to 5%. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22913858
The key difference is that I actually prepared a model. The machines just reiterated other people’s numbers that had been pulled out of self serving arses.
When I shared my model with the machines they avidly agreed with me of course.
I think the humans will be safe enough for a little while yet
