Postecoglou

What worries people isn’t making unusual choices per se. When these weird choices fail, it’s the reputational damage resulting from making such a left field decision that worries most.

You see, in most fields of endeavour we all regress to the mean no matter how smart or trained we are. That is, you can make any choice you want and over time your success rate will be the same as the dumb fucker who lucked into your role, but down the road.

So just quietly the smart ones know that their reputation matters more than anything else. The results, well that’s up to the gods.

So if you see someone eschewing a smart but left field option then you know that they care more about themself than the cause.