Behavioral Economics

The problem is simple. There are nearly infinite future possibilities but in retrospect only one was/is right. The odds are horrendous.

But success is only measured relative to all the other poor fuckers trying to predict the future. So you’ve got a fairly good chance of getting more than your fair share of the proceeds.

Success requires luck and a good grasp of morphic filters; that is, applying past trends to the future and getting lucky on timing.

All that gumph on behavioral economics, all it does is help you avoid dumb ideas underpinned by popular bullshit.

It’s that simple.