Forecax

Predictions of the future have been on my mind of late.

For all of us, a good fraction of our efforts are aimed at framing the future in our own favour.

This requires some insight into the probabilities of this and that occurring.

And we can do this because of two rules:

1. Many things happen tomorrow because they happened yesterday. They always do.

2. For those things that don’t conform to this rule, we have been collectively placing constraints around them for centuries, such that they do.

I still believe that we all conform to the mean when it comes to our futures, as expressed in the present, when it arrives. The mean of the futures of people, that is.

That said, there is a distribution around the mean which is impacted by the distribution in a non-linear fashion. 

Ours goes to eleven … and your’s just might go to twelve if you try hard enough.

Ennui. There’s a word I haven’t used for a while.

The French own it but misuse it. Well, that’s harsh. They know what it feels like but have the least chance of all God’s children of explaining it’s source.

I believe that ennui derives from rule 2 above.

So if you are lucky enough to have arrived at ennui then you know what to do; stop taking advantage of those constraints that guarantee tomorrow but that also limit your downside risks.

That’s easier said that done because, like sugar, it’s a hidden addiction. Step one is awareness. After that, you’re on your own.

But here’s a tip; try to give up forecasting, planning and even contingency analysis. Anything, everything, all of it. 

You’ll be surprised how often you do it, once you force yourself to be aware of when you do.