Gambling and Physics

Today I had the ‘pleasure’ of talking to two academic types that want to spin their technologies out of Australian universities as startups.

One is in IT and the other is a physicist.

I explained to both of them that:

1. The ROI of all Australian startups is very negative, and

2. That despite this there is a small number of startups that have a positive ROI, and

3. Even for these positive ROI startups where the executives had trained and knew everything they could possibly know about the startup gig, that their successes also relied on a large element of luck, and

4. Therefore embarking on a startup in Australia is gambling, and

5. That the odds are such in Australia that one’s life isn’t long enough to do enough startups properly (after you have had the appropriate skills training) in order to guarantee success.

The IT guy didn’t have a clue what I was talking about and will go about his business exactly as he planned before we talked.

The physicist on the other hand, he understood completely and asked me what I could do to change the odds.

I told him and this included, in his specific and very unsexy case, going to the US and bypassing investment in favor of bootstrapping.

I suspect he will.

It pleases me muchly that his classical training hasn’t been wasted.