mxx1's avatar

Prediction

Predicting the future is impossible unless the event you’re predicting is subject to a pattern.

If it is, there are two extremes:

  1. Piss-easy. An example is the sun will come up tomorrow. It will until it doesn’t. And anyone can get this one right.
  2. Super-hard. (Quoting the Batik Air in-flight magazine) – “Can anyone really predict the future direction of a business?
    We often admire those who seem able to, celebrating them as visionaries who are praised for spotting opportunities before anyone else. We analyse their success and call it foresight. But were they truly predicting the future or were they helping to create it?
    The most influential leaders shape markets and persuade people to believe in something that does not yet exist. In many cases what appears to be foresight is simply the result of having the courage to move first and bring others along for the ride. The reality however is that the boldest vision has its sets of challenges. Markets shift unexpectedly, consumer habis are disrupted, technologies that seemed irrelevant become unavoidable. The leaders and organisations that endure are rarely the ones who called it correctly every time. They are the ones who understood that while they could influence the future they could not control it.
    In fact it is more than a boardroom question. It is useful to remember that whether you are running a multinational company or managing a small to midsize enterprise (SME). Even to figuring out your next move with a side hustle built around school pick-up times. The question of how to prepare for an uncertain future belongs to anyone committed to heading in the right direction.”  That’s so deliciously convoluted that no one can manage it.

My personal favourite sub category is horse racing. I can predict that a horse will win each race. I can also predict that more punters will back certain horses than others based on how those horses have run previously and who the horse’s parents are.

Overall I can guess that, mysteriously, the likelihood that the bookie hands out more money that they take in, is very low.

Despite this, the bookie has no idea which horse will win each race. Unless they do.